North American lumber prices have bounced back but how long will this last? A look at the latest US housing starts and home sales data shows continued mixed performance with US housing starts dropping by 4% in July while the inventory of available homes continues to decrease steadily even as home prices are pushed further upward.
If the lumber market seems soft, the data demonstrates that steady demand for finished lumber products is simply not there. While existing home sales and home inventory levels provide some guidance on the general direction of the market, a jump (or upward trend) in housing starts will ultimately drive the kind of lumber demand needed to move the needle.